Monthly Archives: June 2015

KORS

I am currently down 50 cents on my entry on KORS . On checking around I found an article on Yahoo saying there are better apparel companies to buy because KORS sales growth is slowing and analysts have reduced FY15 EPS to 4.38 from 4.50. $4.38 would give the company a value of 65.70 . At 42.00 the current P/E is 9.6.

No matter how rational you think you are, the market can run against you for a long time.

 

SYNA

SYNA has fallen for the past week and is approaching minor support at $86.11 and major support at $84.35

6/29/2019 8:18 ET    Breifing.com

Synaptics upgrade details — to Outperform at Oppenheimer; tgt $105  (86.32)
Oppenheimer upgrades SYNA to Outperform from Perform and sets target price at $105 noting co has declined 14% over the last seven trading days (vs. NASDAQ +0.3%) on what firm believes is unjustified fear over a Digitimes article. It claimed that Apple (AAPL) is developing an in-house TDDI solution. They see this as highly speculative. And even if true, Apple’s TDDI is unlikely to come to fruition until 2018. While firm fully respects AAPL’s ability to integrate and build leading-edge solutions, they believe it is far too difficult to build a TDDI solution for the resolution and touch capabilities needed for an Apple device. Thus, they see the recent sell-off as unjustified and a NT buying opportunity.

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/InPlayEq/Search/ticker.htm?ticker=syna&range=6#ixzz3eSM7JqIZ

MU

Micron reported this evening after the market closed. They reported earnings of .54, a 2 cent miss. They also had a small miss on revenue, $3.85 bln vs the $3.91 bln consensus.

The support levels are 21.00–20.64–18.80–16.39

Micron is a very cyclical business. Their revenue growth this quarter was minus 3.2 %. If I used normal valuation they come in at $47.10, but due to the drastic deceleration in their business 30 bucks is the best I can come up with. That said, my high target here is $23.60 and I will sell most of my position at $22.50.

I bought small at $21.00.

Dave Cappaert

6/29/2015

Bought 5x original position this A.M. at 19.01

 

The Fed

The Federal Reserve is the central banking system of the United States. They were established in 1913 in response to a huge financial panic in 1907.

During my lifetime their primary concern was inflation. In 2008 they were assigned two new areas of responsibility, they were the markets and unemployment.

In December of 2008 Quantitative Easing started.

November 2008

Fed unveils $800 billion plan to bolster lending, housing

March 2009

Federal Reserve to buy $300 billion in longer-term Treasury bonds

November 2010

Federal Reserve to buy $600 billion in bonds

September 2011

Federal Reserve moves to lower interest rates on consumer loans with a $400 billion debt-swap program

June 2012

Fed extends ‘Operation Twist’

December 2012

Fed to launch QE3 by buying mortgage securities

May 2013

Bernanke tells Congress ‘step down’ in QE could come soon

September 2013

Fed decides not to taper

 

The Dow Jones dropped into the 6500’s and unemployment went over 10 percent before QE was started. Since inception, bank to bank overnight rates are one quarter of one percent or less. Unemployment has fallen under 6 percent and the Dow Jones Index is over 18000.Our national debt is now over 18 trillion and that doesn’t include the 6 trillion the Fed used to buy our own debt.

When the money stops, the market drops. In the last six years we have not had a single 10 percent correction. The reason is the continuing influx of money from the Fed. We did have a 7 or 8 percent correction when the Fed said they would slow or stop QE in 2014.

The point I am trying to make here is that you, the little guy with a few thousand bucks in the market, need to be paying attention to the Federal Reserve. If you don’t the big guys will get your money, again.

The way they do that is by reading the market, the same thing you can do, and then going short, which you can’t do in a IRA or 401k.

There’s a whole lot more to this thread.

Stay tuned.

Dave Cappaert