Monthly Archives: September 2015


03-Sep-15 16:11 ET
Vince Holding misses by $0.09, misses on revs; guides FY16 sharply lower; co decided to dispose of the vast majority of prior year product; names Mark Brody as Interim CEO  (9.32 +0.52)

Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $0.14 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.09 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.23; revenues fell 10.4% year/year to $79.99 mln vs the $86.32 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY16, sees EPS of $0.31-0.37, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.84 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY16 revs of $285-295 mln vs. $342.5 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

03-Sep-15 16:03 ET
Vince Holding sees FY16 $0.31-0.37 vs $0.84 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $285-295 mln vs $342.5 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

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Buys VNCE at 3.62 this A.M.

As you can see above VNCE is having a hard time. With FY 16 guidance of .31 to .37  this(3.70) the high end of value. Low is 3.10 but we could wind up in the 2.50 area with a P/E in the 8 area.

The CEO is leaving with the CFO as interim CEO while a search for a new CEO commences.



Sells rest of JOY 19.75

Joy reported bad earnings and guidance yesterday (see previous post).

The logic? for this trade was as follows;

The lower end of JOy’s guidance was 1.80. With a 10 P/E that gives me a value of 18.00. Support on the weekly chart is 17.06. The stock dropped 4.40 from the previous close, that’s 20 percent.

Although they missed their earnings by 7 cents they came in with with 54 cents, an O.K. profit, not going out of business.

Additionally JOY gapped down sharply after a long run down from the 65 dollar area. JOY could almost be considered a value stock at these prices.

Almost any large drop (15/20 percent or more) will bring in buyers if it doesn’t look like the company is going broke.

I had a tiered buy that would get me in at 17.51 if they had all filled. I considered a bounce off 17.06 a sure thing even if it goes lower later. Obviously I didn’t think it would reach 17.06.

The reason for the sell at 19.75 was a 50 percent retracement of the 4.40 drop

blog JOY 15 min 9-4-2015


and by belief that the overall market is going much lower and JOY is going with it.

I hope this is helpful.

Dave C.



JOY reported this morning and missed EPS by 7 cents. In addition they lower guidance to 1.80 vs Capital IQ consensus of 2.43.

Support on the weekly chart is at 17.06. I entered orders at 17.26, 17.51, 17.76 and 18.01 based on a 10 P/E

17.76 and 18.01 filled