Monthly Archives: November 2016

Trump

Trump

The election is finally over. Much to the establishments chagrin Donald Trump is now President Elect of the United States. Personally I and my friends are happy campers but the other half of the country thinks Hitler is manifest in the land.

The problem for us traders/investors is do we get into the market now and stay in or get out and stay out.

The big money backed Hillary Clinton because she was in their pocket. That made her a sure thing for them. If they needed legislation or a presidential push to favor their business interests she would be there for them. Although the democrats bill themselves as the party of the people in the last 25 years they have reversed rolls with the republicans and become the party of big money.

In the meantime the republicans moved from fiscal conservatives to cowards who were willing to do anything to win an election. Because Donald Trump exposed the republicans for the two-faced *%#holes they have been for the last 30 years and the democrats slipped into communism a complete neophyte on the political scene won election to president of the U.S.A.

Although I think Donald Trump is what the country needs to straighten out our fiscal and social problems at this time, I also think he will be very disruptive to our economic markets for the first year or two of his term.

You may have noticed that when the FBI dropped their email investigation last Friday the DJIA jumped more than 300 points. Conversely when it became apparent the Trump was going to become president elect the DJIA futures dropped more than 900 points in the overnight trading on the international markets. That was big money’s reaction to not getting what they wanted and expected. I expected three or four days of trading down but was surprised to see the DJIA only down about 350 at 6:30 the next morning and then ending the day with a 317 point gain. Quite a reversal. I think the reversal was caused by we, the people.

So, should we sit on the sidelines or jump in now. Truthfully I am torn by this decision because the Donald is going to be a big market/economic disrupter.

On the one hand he will be great for the country in the long run, but on the negative side Donald will immediately on entering office dismantle and rebuild the health care system, he will start building a wall between us and Mexico, hopefully institute E Verify to stop employers from hiring illegally immigrants.

On the positive side, he will lift restrictions on the oil industry, cancel billions in funding to climate change boondoggles, renegotiate NAFTA and cancel many of Obama’s executive actions.

These are only a few samples. But every one of these actions would have a huge impact on the market on any given day or week or month. As you read the plus and minus paragraphs, realize that I could switch one into the other and they would still be mostly valid.

As we all know the markets are a forward looking mechanism and these things and more are going to disrupt investors outlook.

For those who feel they must be in the market (what your broker will tell you) I wouldn’t put more than half of your cash in and I would put a stop market order in just under the 18000 area.

The markets have been overpriced for quite some time and we are long overdue for a major correction. This is an excellent opportunity for this to occur.

Yesterday and today (currently up 222) we are experiencing euphoria based on not being inflicted with an even more corrupt government and possible getting a president who could actually straighten some of the problems out.

Dave C

GNC

Buys GNC 13.67

gnc-15m-11-3-2016

GNC broke through the descending channel at $13.55 but yesterdays high was $13.65. I could have bought at $13.56 but I wanted to be sure it was a breakout. Notice the two circled breaks through the upper parallel line.  It was certainly possible to get another one of these this morning.

Those two false breakouts and the trading in the upper half of the channel let me know yesterday of a strong possibility of a break to the upside today.

This is a deep value trade but it could go to ten bucks. Size your trade accordingly.

Dave C

GNC

As you all know I got out of GNC at $21.50 on Oct. 21. The reason was the long sideways movement and no credible offers for the company. Earnings were right around the corner (a week away) and I had low confidence in their ability to beat their projections.

GNC Holdings misses by $0.12, misses on revs  (20.14)

10/27/2016, 6:55:48 AM ET

  • Reports Q3 (Sep) adj. earnings of $0.59 per share, $0.12 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.71; revenues fell 8.1% year/year to $628 mln vs the $651.32 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
  • Negative domestic retail same store sales of 8.5%, which includes GNC.com, resulted in a $35.2 million decrease in revenue year-over-year. Negative same store sales were primarily due to lower sales in the protein, vitamins and food/drink categories and a significant decrease in e-commerce sales due in part to better aligning web promotions to the Company’s stores. E-commerce sales were 6.8% of consolidated revenue during the current quarter compared with 7.3% of consolidated revenue in the prior year quarter. In addition, corporate stores decreased from 3,546 at September 30, 2015 to 3,512 at September 30, 2016 in connection with the Company’s refranchising strategy.
  • “Our results for the quarter fell short of our expectations, but we have been moving quickly to address the key issues that are critical to returning GNC to growth. We are focused on eliminating confusion regarding our product pricing, providing customers with an improved loyalty program, enhancing the customer experience in our stores and reinvigorating the GNC branded product innovation pipeline.
  • Peer: Vitamin Shoppe (VSI).

They actually did much worse than I expected. Along with a 12 cent miss on earnings their revenue declined by 8.1 percent.

GNC is definitely in need of a change in management which would occur with a buyout. Or the board of directors could bring it about any day now. This huge slump in earnings and revenue could bring it about. Even they should know by now that they need to act in one capacity or another. Even I as a lowly trader can come up with several scenarios that would turn this company around.

Future earnings have been reduced to $2.59 this year, $2.47 in 2017 and 2018 and $2.60 in 2019.

Based on earnings of $2.47 per annum in 2017 and 2018 GNC’s current forward P/E is 5.46. This is definitely in the buy range of 4 to 7 P/E’s. I am currently watching GNC for a turnaround in price based on price action. Be aware that a 4 P/E would value GNC at $9.88. That would be the worst case downside in mine opinion, so don’t go overboard on share size.

blog-gnc-d-2016

This slow grind down is an indication that GNC will continue down, but

blog-gnc-15-m-11-2-2016

after setting a new low this morning GNC broke through the upper band of the channel you see on the 15 minute chart above.

If it does not set a new low and breaks above $13.65, the high set today, I will reenter here.

The reason is this now a much better buyout candidate,

it is now a serious value play at a forward P/E of 5.46,

it will have set a cup and handle reversal pattern

and fair value is $37.05 at a 15 P/E.

Target is $24.50

No stop price.

Dave C