Dow Jones Breakout

To my surprise, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken to new highs. blog indu 120 min 7-14-2016

The previous all time high was 13351.38 so the breakout is decisive.

In the chart above you can see the Fibonacci Extension (measured move) I use it to try to get an idea just how far it may go. The white dot on the lower left of the chart is the beginning of the first leg of the move. That first leg is called a flagpole and ends at the second upper dot. The third white dot is the retracement and is called a bull flag.

There are two ways to measure a measured move. The first as shown on the chart. The second would leave the third dot at the top of the flagpole. Needless to say you get widely different targets from the two different methods.

The first target (chart as shown) gives us 18653 and the second gives us 18936. Somewhere in there is the correct number. So you ask, what good is that? An almost 200 point spread doesn’t tell me much.

But it does. It  tells you where the pro’s are expecting a reversal in the market. If INDU doesn’t make it to the lower number it shows weakness and conversely it shows strength if it exceeds the upper number.

From the lower number onward I would looking to sell existing positions and an opportunity to short the market or individual stocks.

Dave C

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