TGI

Triumph Group, Inc. TGI is an OEM manufacturer of aircraft components. They design, manufacturer, engineer, overhaul, repair, and distributes aero structures worldwide.

Over the last year or so TGI seems to have had some execution issues but I am hearing that these are pretty much behind them now.

Deloitte’s 2016 Aerospace and Defense Sector outlook states that this sector should be bullish for the next 20 years so the business is there if TGI’s management has gotten their act together and can sign some major business to the books.

Dan Crawley was hired as CEO and President of TGI on Jan 4 this year. He has 32 years experience in the aerospace and defense industries and was last with Raytheon as the President of Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems, Inc.

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As you can see on the daily chart above the projected earning for FY 18 are $4.48. With the new CEO I assume that every negative thing that could be found has been thrown into the last couple of earnings reports, and this is pretty apparent with negative sales growth for the past year.

Using the worst projected earnings TGI’s of $4.48 current P/E is 5.96. If we use last years earnings their P/E is 5.27.

In 2013 TGI had a high of $85.50 and a low of $13.44 in 2009.

Currently we have strong support at $23.00 then $18.00, 16.20, 14.60 and finally $13.44.

I would be astonished if TGI broke $23.00 but I’ve been surprised before. Currently I am watching TGI daily waiting for a reversal signal because it is way oversold.

Initial target is $40.00. With an improvement in sales and profit $70.00 within 18 months.

Dave C.

 

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